Anyone’s Year?
Eight teams, no clear favorite, and the strongest WNBA playoff field since 2003.
The WNBA playoffs start Sunday and there hasn't been a playoff field this good from top to bottom in quite some time. The eight teams in this year's playoffs won 66.8% of their games, which is the most any playoff field has managed since 2003 (the previous high was 62.5%, in 2006). In seed order, they're the Lynx (33-11), the Valkyries (32-12), the Aces (31-13), the Dream (30-14), the Mystics (28-16), the Fever (28-16), the Wings (27-17) and the Liberty (26-18). Typically, the last team that makes the playoff cut ends the season a little under .500. This year, the last team in (the Liberty) went 26-18, well above the typical last seed, and the first team out (the Fire) finished 17-27, which is the biggest gap between the last team in and the first team out of any season since 2003.
This is the strongest playoff field since 2003, top to bottom
To really compare this year's playoff teams, you need to look beyond records to their scoring margin, or the average number of points each team wins by. Scoring margin tells you the difference between a team that won its close games and lost its blowouts and a team that beat everyone by a lot: the Mystics and the Fever both finished 28-16 this year, but Washington's margin is +1.3 and Indiana's is +5.5. It also matches up with past champions better than record does. Since 2003, twenty-one of the twenty-three champions were one of the top two teams in the league by scoring margin (by record it's twenty). The only two champions who came from further down the list were the 2021 Sky, who were sixth by margin that year, and last year's Aces, who were fifth.
21 of the last 23 champions were one of the two best teams by scoring margin
Now look at the top of this year's list by margin. Five teams are within two points of each other: Minnesota, who also finished with the best record, wins by 7.2 a night, Golden State by 7.0, Atlanta by 6.9, Las Vegas by 5.7 and Indiana by 5.5. That's the tightest the top five have been in any season since 2003, and the Lynx's 7.2 is the smallest margin any league leader has had since 2015. Most seasons, there's a team clearly out in front by this metric, like the 2023 Aces at 12.6 or last year's Lynx at 9.4, but this year there's all kinds of talent at the top.
Five of this year's eight are within two points of each other
You could see it all season, too. These eight teams played each other 88 times, and 29 of those games were decided by five points or fewer, the highest share since 2007. That's 33%, and across the whole league this year it was 27%, so the games between the playoff teams were closer than the rest. The data shows it's anyone's year (though I'm personally rooting for my Lynx!) and I can’t wait to watch what happens. Enjoy the playoffs!
When this year's playoff teams met, 29 of 88 games came down to five points or fewer, the most since 2007
METHODOLOGYGAMES THRU SEP 24, 2026SHOW THE WORK +HIDE −
- THE FIELD
- the eight teams in a season's playoffs · for every finished season, the eight that played a playoff game; for this one, the eight best records, which is the league’s rule since 2016 · a field's win rate is its eight teams' wins over their games, pooled · the schedule record begins in 2003 and ESPN's copy of it lacks two 2003 games, so every comparison here starts there · queries & code on request, free
- SCORING MARGIN
- points scored minus points allowed, averaged over a team's regular-season games · a team's rank by margin is its place among every team that season, not only the playoff eight · the champion is the winner of the last playoff game of the season
- CLOSE GAMES
- a game decided by five points or fewer, the final score's difference · fig. 04 counts only games where both teams were in that season's field; the league-wide share in the prose counts every regular-season game
- WHICH GAMES COUNT
- regular season only, for every record and margin. The All-Star Game and the Commissioner's Cup final are dropped, the Cup's group games are kept because the league counts them, and a playoff game counts only to say who was in the field and who won it · ties in record are ordered the league's way, head-to-head first, the same ladder the stats page prints · data frozen at press time
- CREDITS
- Schedules and results: ESPN, via wehoop · Crests: the WNBA
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